Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/31/2013 -- Still Expecting 6.1% GDP Growth This Year

Our outlook for the Indonesian economy remains unchanged since our last quarterly report. BMI continues to forecast GDP growth of 6.1% in 2013, rising to 6.4% in 2014. The big driver of this growth is domestic consumer spending, which represents around 55% of GDP. Coupled with good fundamentals and gradual improvements in the operating environment as a result of government reforms, this has given Indonesia significant resilience against external headwinds. One of the main concerns on the latter front has been the deterioration in the terms of trade over the last year, with the prices of key exports seeing sharp falls: palm oil prices fell 33.4% since May 2012, and coal prices slumped by 17.2%. On the plus side we think these commodity prices are now stabilising. Political risk may increase in the run-up to the 2014 general elections and we remain concerned over the temptation to follow populist economic policies (the current government plans to ban unprocessed mineral exports in 2014 as a way of ensuring that more value-added refining and processing remains within the country). Overall however, Indonesia is set to see steady growth which will offer support to the freight industry. In fact, over the next five years annual GDP growth is set to average 6.4%, confirming the country's status as one of the top performers in Asia.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents

The growth outlook for Indonesia's freight sector is encouraging, particularly because there are signs that one of its key problems, an infrastructure investment deficit, is beginning to be tackled. Capacity problems remain an issue, but new investment projects in ports, airports, road, and rail are being launched.

Industry Data

- Air freight volumes are forecast to expand by 6.7% in 2013, with average annual growth of 5.2% during our forecast period to 2017.
- Rail freight volumes are estimated to rise by 6.2% in 2013, with average growth of 7.1% during our forecast period.
- 2013 Tanjung Priok total tonnage forecast to grow 6.2% to 55.193mn tonnes, with average growth of 5.8% expected over our forecast period to 2017.
- 2013 Palembang total tonnage forecast to grow 5.9% to 12.403mn tonnes, with average growth of 4.5% over our forecast period.
- Indonesian foreign trade (exports + imports) expected to grow by 6.4% in real terms in 2013, up from 4.3% in 2012.

Key Industry Trends

KAI To Buy New Rolling Stock In PTBA Deal

About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

Browse all Transportation research reports at Fast Market Research

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Australia Freight Transport Report Q3 2013
- Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2013
- Belgium Freight Transport Report Q3 2013
- Poland Freight Transport Report Q3 2013
- Argentina Freight Transport Report Q3 2013
- Malaysia Freight Transport Report Q3 2013
- Iran Freight Transport Report Q3 2013
- China Freight Transport Report Q3 2013
- United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report Q3 2013
- Egypt Freight Transport Report Q3 2013