New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Indonesia Freight Transport Report Q4 2014"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/09/2014 -- Political Risk Coming Back Down After Elections
With the general elections now over and Joko Wikodo poised to take over from President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, political risk factors are beginning to subside and BMI retains a broadly optimistic outlook for the Indonesian economy. That said, we consider 2014 to be a relatively weak transition year prior to the recovery gathering pace in 2015. First quarter growth slowed to 5.2% year-on-year and we expect some further weakening because of the government ban on raw mineral exports and lower investment inflows. The mineral export ban is supposed to encourage more processing inside Indonesia, but we believe few international companies will make the major refinery and smelter investments required, and that the policy will be growth-negative. That said, President-elect Wikodo was clearly the more market-friendly of the two main presidential candidates, so business sentiment will be improving. We also think monetary policy will become more pro-growth. Considering all these factors, we are maintaining our forecast for 5.1% GDP growth in 2014, with the rate picking up to 6.0% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016.
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Our freight transport forecast for 2014 shows a slower pace of growth, as the economy decelerates. We had expected the slowdown to be partially offset by something of a recovery in foreign trade, but according to our latest projections, this will be weaker than we hoped. In the medium to longer term we continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. We are encouraged to see evidence of progress on this front. Capacity problems remain an issue, but new investment projects in ports, airports, road, and rail are being launched.
- Air freight volumes are forecast to expand by 7.0% in 2014, with average annual growth of 7.1% during our forecast period to 2018.
- Rail freight volumes are estimated to rise by 8.3% in...
The Indonesia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Indonesia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
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