Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/01/2013 -- The Indonesian IT market is forecast to be one of the outperforming markets globally in the medium term on the back of strong economic growth and an emerging middle class. However, BMI has downwardly revised its forecast in Q413 following a slowdown in PC sales in the first quarter of the year and uncertainties about Indonesia's economic outlook. The cheaper rupiah - the currency was one of the weakest regional performers - has had a constraining effect on household spending. In the immediate future, IT spending is forecast to increase to IDR63.0trn in 2013, up from IDR54.6bn in 2012. The retail market will be a major driver of growth, with PC penetration estimated at below 10% in 2012, meaning significant growth potential from first-time buyers and upgrades/personal devices. Meanwhile an upturn in government spending provided a boost to IT spending in Q113.

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Headline Expenditure Projections

Computer Hardware Sales: IDR44.7trn in 2013 to IDR63.7trn in 2017, at a CAGR of 10.2% in local currency terms. Sales were down in Q113 but rising incomes and the growing affordability of devices, combined with credit availability, will increase sales in the consumer segment.

Software sales: IDR7.6trn in 2013 to IDR12.7trn in 2017, a CAGR of 14.9% in local currency terms. Windows 8 sales will boost spending in 2013, as the government launches a new roadshow to bring down illegal software use.

IT Services Sales: IDR10.7trn in 2013 to IDR16.7trn in 2017, with a CAGR of 12.9% in local currency terms. Our forecast has been downwardly revised but a key growth area is cloud services, which could be worth more than IDR11.8trn by 2017.

Risk/Reward Ratings: Indonesia's score was 47.5 out of 100.0. Indonesia remained in ninth position in our latest RRR table, below the Philippines but ahead of Thailand.

Key Trends & Developments

The tablet market is expected to experience rapid growth in 2013 as a wide range of low-cost Androidbased tablets hit the market. Consumers have shown a clear preference for mobile computing devices, including netbooks and notebooks, but tablet adoption failed to take off prior to 2012 due the high price of devices, putting them out of reach for the majority of consumers. Higher specification devices are now becoming available at affordable prices, and, with PC penetration at under 10% in 2012, there is a large opportunity for tablets to be adopted as a first device, with consumers skipping ownership of a desktop or notebook. BMI believes OEMs from China, as well as local brands such as S Nexian will be the main beneficiaries of demand for low-cost devices. However, global vendors such as Acer have stated their intentions to target mid- and low-specification devices at the market in order to achieve growth.

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