Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/25/2013 -- The outlook for the country's oil and gas sector is becoming increasingly uncertain. We forecast a long-term decline in total liquids production and a stagnation of gas production. This is mainly a result of the slow pace of exploration and development, exacerbated by an increasingly uncertain regulatory environment as resource nationalism creeps into the government's policy towards the sector. Opportunities for exports will be further compromised by the domestic market's increasing energy demand. Hence, falling oil and gas exports is another key trend we identify for Indonesian oil and gas.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Indonesia's oil and gas sector are:

- We forecast that oil and gas reserves will most likely be on a downward trend in the coming decade: oil reserves are expected to decrease from an estimate of 4.0bn barrels (bbl) of oil at the beginning of 2013 to 3.7bn bbl in 2017, falling further still to 3.4bn bbl by 2022. For gas, we expect reserves levels to be stagnant as addition from exploration successes in East Kalimantan cancels out natural depletion from existing fields. Reserves are forecast to fall from 3.07tcm in 2013 to 2.80tcm in 2017, and fall further to 2.51tcm unless the pace of drilling activity picks up.
- Despite this outlook, Indonesia is a country where much below-ground potential continues to exist. If the country relaxes its nationalist stance on resources, there is considerable upside potential for both oil and gas reserves - greater drilling of its unexplored deepwater areas and its unconventional resources - coal-bed methane and shale gas. - We expect total liquids production (excluding refinery processing gains) to rise from an estimate of 919,670b/d in 2013 to 926,180b/d in 2014 and 932,260b/d in 2015, owing to major fields finally coming on-stream or ramping up to their full production capacity. Thereafter, in the longer term we see oil output trending downwards to 884,840b/d in 2017 and hitting a low of 808,280b/d by 2022.
- Despite grand plans to expand the country's refining capacity, difficulty in financing greenfield projects on top of modernising old plants in a unfavourable policy environment will see limited change to Indonesia's downstream landscape. We expect its refining capacity to stay stagnant at around 1.12mn b/d from 2015 through to the end of our forecast period. Total refined oil product output is expected to rise initially from an estimate of 981,840b/d in 2012 to 990,600b/d in 2016 - a result of an increase in output from modernised Cilacap and Balikpapan. However, growing inefficiencies in older plants could reverse this uptrend as utilisation rate falls, thereby leading to a slide in production downwards to 973,840b/d by 2022.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents

About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

Browse all Energy research reports at Fast Market Research

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Voyager Oil & Gas, Inc. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q2, 2013
- Legacy Oil + Gas Inc. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q2, 2013
- China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q1, 2013
- OJSC Rosneft Oil Company Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q1, 2013
- Traverse Energy Ltd. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q2, 2013
- Insignia Energy Ltd. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q1, 2013
- DeeThree Exploration Ltd. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q2, 2013
- Sure Energy Inc. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q2, 2013
- Tuscany Energy Ltd. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q2, 2013
- Second Wave Petroleum Inc. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q1, 2013