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Indonesia Oil & Gas Report Q1 2014 - New Study Released

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Indonesia Oil & Gas Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research

 
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Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/25/2013 -- The outlook for the country's oil and gas sector is becoming increasingly uncertain. We forecast a long-term decline in total liquids production and a stagnation of gas production. This is mainly a result of the slow pace of exploration and development, exacerbated by an increasingly uncertain regulatory environment as resource nationalism creeps into the government's policy towards the sector. Opportunities for exports will be further compromised by the domestic market's increasing energy demand. Hence, falling oil and gas exports is another key trend we identify for Indonesian oil and gas.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Indonesia's oil and gas sector are:

- We forecast that oil and gas reserves will most likely be on a downward trend in the coming decade: oil reserves are expected to decrease from an estimate of 4.0bn barrels (bbl) of oil at the beginning of 2013 to 3.7bn bbl in 2017, falling further still to 3.4bn bbl by 2022. For gas, we expect reserves levels to be stagnant as addition from exploration successes in East Kalimantan cancels out natural depletion from existing fields. Reserves are forecast to fall from 3.07tcm in 2013 to 2.80tcm in 2017, and fall further to 2.51tcm unless the pace of drilling activity picks up.
- Despite this outlook, Indonesia is a country where much below-ground potential continues to exist. If the country relaxes its nationalist stance on resources, there is considerable upside potential for both oil and gas reserves - greater drilling of its unexplored deepwater areas and its unconventional resources - coal-bed methane and shale gas. - We expect total liquids production (excluding refinery processing gains) to rise from an estimate of 919,670b/d in 2013 to 926,180b/d in 2014 and 932,260b/d in 2015, owing to major fields finally coming on-stream or ramping up to their full production capacity. Thereafter, in the longer term we see oil output trending downwards to 884,840b/d in 2017 and hitting a low of 808,280b/d by 2022.
- Despite grand plans to expand the country's refining capacity, difficulty in financing greenfield projects on top of modernising old plants in a unfavourable policy environment will see limited change to Indonesia's downstream landscape. We expect its refining capacity to stay stagnant at around 1.12mn b/d from 2015 through to the end of our forecast period. Total refined oil product output is expected to rise initially from an estimate of 981,840b/d in 2012 to 990,600b/d in 2016 - a result of an increase in output from modernised Cilacap and Balikpapan. However, growing inefficiencies in older plants could reverse this uptrend as utilisation rate falls, thereby leading to a slide in production downwards to 973,840b/d by 2022.

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