Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/25/2013 -- We are broadly maintaining our forecasts for the Indonesian pharmaceutical market, the growth of which will be supported by the government's quest for better healthcare provision and the industry's desire to capitalise on these healthcare initiatives. However, higher inflation is expected to have a knock-on effect on pharmaceutical prices, which are already prohibitively high for large sections of the population, especially as most patients have to foot their own medical bills in full.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: IDR58,553bn (US$6.25bn) in 2012 to IDR64,072bn (US$6.41bn) in 2013; +9.4% growth in local currency terms and +2.6% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast slightly higher in relation to the previous quarter, on the back of higher inflation.
- Healthcare: IDR225,496bn (US$24.05bn) in 2012 to IDR250,101bn (US$25.01bn) in 2013; +10.9% growth in local currency terms and +4.0% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast slightly higher in relation to the previous quarter on the back of higher inflation.

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Risk/Reward Rating: In our Q413 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRRs), Indonesia remains in 13th position out of the 18 Asia Pacific markets. The country's longer-term positives, such as its large population, are negated by significant risks, including the lacking intellectual property (IP) protection regime and the widespread corruption.

Key Trends And Developments

- In August 2013, Indonesia officially rolled out a pentavalent vaccine designed to immunise newborns against five diseases: diphtheria, whooping cough, tetanus, hepatitis B and haemophilus influenza type B. The vaccine, produced by leading local vaccines manufacturer Biofarma, has been added to Indonesia's national immunisation programme according to Health Minister Nafsiah Mboi.
- In June 2013, the Jakarta Post reported that stakeholders in the Jakarta Health Card (KJS) programme in Indonesia were deliberating the introduction of different rates for public and private hospitals registered under the programme. Private hospitals are reportedly incurring financial losses due to the wide gap between the actual costs and the medical fees covered by the city administration. The stakeholders are evaluating the current rates and still discussing the feasibility of readjusting the rates. According to Oloan Siregar, assistant to the city secretary for people's welfare, one thing to consider is that the government subsidises the public hospitals, while private hospitals do not receive any subsidy.

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