Fast Market Research recommends "Indonesia Shipping Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/10/2013 -- BMI View: Positive Outlook, Forecasts Fine-Tuned
We have been fine-tuning our growth forecasts for Indonesia in 2012 and 2013, but only marginally so. Since our last quarterly report we reduced the 2012 forecast a little (mainly on fears of inflation forcing a monetary tightening), but then in August pushed it up again as data for Q212 showed that the domestic economy is growing rather faster than expected. We still believe that the slowdown in the global economy is the main negative and will hold Indonesian growth below its 2011 level. On the other hand, everything shows that the country's domestic economy is in fairly strong health, with consumer spending looking solid and investment also performing well as the government and the private sector begin to tackle the often postponed need to expand and update infrastructure. The net result is that BMI now expects the Indonesian economy to grow by 6.0% in 2012 (up from 5.4% in our last quarterly report); our outlook is for GDP growth of 6.3% in 2013 (no change). In the five years to 2016 we expect growth to average 6.3% per annum, confirming the country as a regional outperformer.
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The growth outlook for Indonesia's ports, constrained by short-term capacity limits, has not changed significantly. We continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. We are encouraged that after many delays, Indonesia Port Corporation II (IPC) announced earlier this year that it will invest US$2.47bn to develop an extension Tanjung Priok port in North Jakarta. Also a positive this quarter was the company's announcement that it will build a big iron ore and container transhipment facility on the island of Batam (see below).
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Tanjung Priok total tonnage forecast to grow 5.9% to 49.879mn tonnes, with average growth of 5.7% expected over our forecast period to 2016.
- 2012 Palembang total tonnage forecast to grow 3.6% to 10.595mn tonnes, with average growth of 4.1% over our forecast period.
- 2012 Tanjung Priok container throughput forecast to grow 3.9% to 6.024mn TEUs, with average growth of 9.3% over our forecast period.
- 2012 Palembang container throughput forecast to grow 5.4% to 91,545TEUs, with average growth of 6.2% over our forecast period.
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