Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/07/2012 -- The Indonesia Tourism Report examines the strong long-term potential being offered by the local tourism industry, bolstered by rising demand for regional travel from China, but we caution that demand from other traditional source markets, notably in Europe, may fall across the remainder of 2012 as the region tries to get to grips with its mounting economic difficulties.
We also analyse the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading players in the local tourism sector (ie: airlines and hotel chains) as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities being offered by the Indonesian market.
Looking at preliminary indications for 2012, arrivals over January-April increased by 8.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 2,529,896 people, according to information from the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy. Growth has been seen across all market regions, with Singapore continuing to be the most important inbound source market for Indonesian tourism.
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As such, 2012 looks set to be another strong year for Indonesian tourism, in line with BMI's views. For now, we are happy to maintain the current forecast of 7.91mn tourist arrivals for the year, as the country consolidates recent strong annual gains in arrival numbers.
Beyond the current year, we forecast average increases of just over 3% per annum during the coming years, leading to a total of over 9mn tourist arrivals by the end of 2016. If the global economy picks up momentum moving into 2013, there will be upside risks to our current forecasts.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI believes arrivals from Australia should show stronger growth over the remainder of our forecast period through to 2016. This follows the news in May 2012 that the Australian government has downgraded its travel advisory to Bali for the first time since the terrorist attacks in 2002.
- We forecast a 3% increase in tourism spending for 2012, to reach US$8.86bn. We then forecast a 17% increase in tourism spending, which will pass the US$10bn mark during 2015 and reach almost US$10.5bn by the end of 2016.
- BMI believes the main risks to the current forecasts are any resurgence of bird flu - with the country having reported seven new fatal cases of the H5N1 virus since the start of 2012 - or a recurrence in terrorist activity aimed at tourists.
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