Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/12/2014 -- Core Views

- Recent improvements in relations with the West bode well for the country's economy. That said, uncertainty over the outcome of negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme will ensure that risks to the outlook remain elevated.

- The economy is set to return to growth in 2014 and 2015, as i mproving relations with the West and better macroeconomic management, coupled with low base effects, will lead to an improved outlook for exports and increased business and consumer confidence.

- Downside pressure on the Iranian rial will remain prominent, and the unit will remain sensitive to developments in nuclear negotiations over the coming quarters.

Major Forecast Changes

- We have revised our real GDP growth forecasts this quarter, and are projecting the economy to expand by 2.8% in real terms in 2014, up from our previous forecast of 3.2% growth.

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Key Risks To Outlook

- A breakdown in negotiations over the country's nuclear programme could prompt us to revise our real GDP growth forecasts downward and our inflation forecasts upward.

- Higher global energy prices may lead to upside risk to our growth forecasts and downside risk to our fiscal deficit forecasts.

The Iran Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Iran and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Iran's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses:

- Forecast the pace and stability of Iran's economic and industry growth through end-2018.

- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.

- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

- Contextualise Iran's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.

- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Iran, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Iran Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Iran economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Iran through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Iran Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.

- BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).

- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.

- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).

- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.

- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.

- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.

- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).

- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

- Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Iran and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.

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