Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/15/2013 -- We expect the downward trajectory of pharmaceutical exports into Iran to continue throughout 2013, although essential medicines will still reach patients due to unmet demands and loopholes in the financial transfer system. If the drug supply is on the verge of complete depletion, we believe the Iranian government will be placed in an extremely difficult position either needing to make concessions to its nuclear programme to avoid a complete economic collapse, or allow a domestic humanitarian disaster caused by medicine shortfalls to take place.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: IRR52,127bn (US$1.04bn) in 2012 to IRR55,606bn (US$794mn) in 2013; +6.7% in local currency terms and -23.8% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast lowered unchanged from Q113.
- Healthcare: IRR387,825bn (US$29.61bn) in 2012 to IRR521,820bn (US$31.12bn) in 2013; +34.6% in local currency terms and +5.1% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast unchanged from Q113.

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Risk/Reward Rating: Iran's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q213 is unchanged from the previous quarter. This is also the case for all other countries in BMI's proprietary system that ranks pharmaceutical markets according to attractiveness to multinational drugmakers. A minor reweighting of one of the RRR components is being implemented to improve the tool, and the adjusted scores for all markets will be published in the Q313 updates of the Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare reports. Iran has a RRR score of 45.5 out of 100, making it the 15th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, which covers 30 main markets.

Key Trends And Developments

- In November 2012, the US government eased sanctions on the sale of medicines and medical supplies to Iran. The government took the decision amid fears that it might lose global support for an international campaign to impose sanctions on Iran for its disputed nuclear programme. The move came after Iran protested that the sanctions imposed by the US are harming its ordinary citizens. The sanctions have resulted in the shortage of medicines for diseases such as haemophilia, cancer and multiple sclerosis (MS), thereby directly affecting the lives of millions of patients, according to Fatemeh Hashemi, the head of the Charity Foundation for Special Diseases.

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