Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/23/2015 -- We expect the majority of our forecast indicators to see a substantial decline over 2015 in the wake of IS' continued targeting of water facilities, and we do not anticipate a full recovery until the end of our forecast period. Should the conflict continue or intensify, with IS destroying facilities as opposed to capturing them, then this poses a significant downside risk to our forecasts.

ISIS still controls or has a presence near a number of key river dam water supply facilities across Iraq, particularly those on the major Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which represent Iraq's key freshwater resources. We see this as a serious risk both to continued existing supplies and to future investments into the sector, as infrastructure and management companies are unlikely to want to invest in a country where their water assets are at such risk. International attention had previously been focused on risks to the oil sector in Iraq, but water is now firmly in the public eye and the full significance of IS' strategic movements is beginning to show. Although economically their occupation of key oil-producing regions posed a serious threat to Iraq's economic stability (and had implications for the wider region) the threat to the country's water supplies is a far more immediate danger, particularly in the southern regions of Iraq which rely heavily on the rivers' waters.

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Given that the government will be a key driver of infrastructure project implementation as well as financing over the coming years, the uncertain political outlook for Taiwan in light of the presidential elections coming up in 2016 is a key risk to our outlook for the current infrastructure improvements in the pipeline for the water sector. Moreover, neither the ruling Kuomintang party nor the opposition Democratic Progressive Party has a concrete China policy which poses particularly significant risks with regards to potential China water imports. Although agreements have now been signed, any change to pro-China political sentiment could result in the delay or even cancellation of the proposed pipeline, and this is a significant downside risk to our water consumption outlook.

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China and Taiwan signed a deal on July 20 to pump water from the province of Fujian in mainland China to Taiwan's Kinmen County, in a sign of a thaw in relations between the two countries. Under the terms of the agreement, a 11.5km undersea pipeline will be built from Fujian to transport water to the 100,000 residents of the Kinmen archipelago by 2017. The pipeline will be able to deliver up to 34,000 tonnes of water daily to the archipelago by 2027.

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