New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/18/2012 -- BMI View: Tel Aviv is coping with an increasingly adverse political climate regarding its energy sector with a highly positive exploration narrative that has yielded a string of discoveries in the prospective Levant basin. Though Egypt has cancelled its seven-year-old gas supply agreement, Israel's Tamar and Leviathan fields will underwrite a gas bounty that will bring on substantial volumes of supply to the domestic market.
We highlight the following trends and developments in Israel's oil and gas sector:
- Bolstered by the discoveries of significant natural gas reserves at the Tamar and Leviathan offshore fields, Israel is primed to emerge as an exporter of gas over the course of BMI's forecast period to 2021. This prospect is increasingly important to Israel's energy demand/supply balance, since - as BMI predicted in its last Israel oil & gas report - imports from Egypt have been brought to a peremptory end.
- BMI believes that Israeli gas consumption declined slightly in 2011, from 3.69bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010 to an estimated 3.32bcm, owing to attacks on the gas import pipeline from Egypt. However, the start-up of production at offshore fields will significantly push up consumption from 2012 onwards, as Israeli energy demand moves to gas. BMI forecasts that consumption will rise from 3.55bcm in 2012 to over 13bcm by 2021.
- While gas production is set to rocket, strong potential also exists for oil, both in the form of deep offshore reservoirs and a pilot scheme for oil shale, which could potentially unlock several billion barrels of reserves.
- Gas production should reach just under 19bcm by 2021, assuming the Leviathan field comes onstream by 2017. There are strong upside risks to this forecast.
- Security of gas supply has risen sharply up the agenda in Israel, with a government committee recommending the establishment of a 25-year gas reserve, equivalent to 14trn cubic feet of gas, to serve the domestic market. The report charts a roadmap for export volumes according to the size of discovered reserves. A 200bcm find would be obliged to supply 50% to the local market; a 100-200bcm discovery 40%; and a 50-100bcm discovery 25%.
- We see Israel importing small quantities of LNG in the years 2012 and 2013 to compensate for the decline in output from Mari-B and small volumes of gas from Noa. However, we see Israeli emerging as an LNG exporter by 2017.
- Israeli oil consumption is set to decline substantially, from a high of around 244,000b/d in 2013 to under 210,000b/d by the end of the forecast period in 2021. We do not expect a rise in Israel's 220,000b/d refining capacity over the forecast period.
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