Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/06/2014 -- Despite the government's acknowledgement that the country's agricultural sector is in need of reform and transformation, we believe that the piecemeal policies adopted and the lack of compromise in international free trade talks points to the gap between rhetoric and action. Indeed, Japan's uncompromising stance in maintaining tariffs on imported rice, wheat, beef, pork, dairy and sugar - the country's sacred farm products list - might prove costly in the long run. With an ageing farmer population (the average age of a Japanese farmer is close to 70 years old) coupled with highly inefficient farming methods - usually constrained by the small plots of family run farms - the Japanese agriculture industry faces a bleak future if it does not reinvent itself. There are however, green shoots in the midst of this, as illustrated by the rise of more public-private joint ventures in the agriculture space such as the new subsidiary of Sojitz Corp and Toyo Reizo Co (an affiliate with Mitsubishi Corp) which will have large-scale cultivation of greenhouse vegetables and blue fin tuna respectively in cooperation with agricultural cooperatives.

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Key Forecasts:

- Rice production growth to 2017/2018: 3.4% on the 2013 level to 9.0mn tonnes. Supply will continue to fall with subsidies still in place.

- Beef consumption growth to 2017/18: 4.2% on the 2013 level to 1.3mn tonnes. Marginal growth is expected especially in the nearer term as higher consumption taxes curb spending.

- Pork production growth to 2018: 7.8% on the 2013 level to 1.4mn tonnes. Pork production should grow stronger than beef as consumers increase their intake of white meat, a healthier alternative to red meat.

- 2014f real GDP growth: 0.9% (down from 1.6% in 2013, forecast to average 0.8% out to 2018).

- 2014f consumer price inflation: 2.4% average (up from 0.4% in 2013, forecast to average 2.6% to 2018).

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD94.5bn in 2014 (down from USD97.4bn in 2013;...

The Japan Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Japan Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.

- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.

- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Japan.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

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