Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/18/2012 -- BMI View: Japan's consumption of imported oil and natural gas has risen as a result of nuclear power generation losses in the wake of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Over the longer term, a reassessment of energy strategy means nuclear will play a less prominent role and, inevitably, gas will have to make up part of the shortfall. This suggests Japan will become a still bigger player in global LNG purchasing.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Japan's Oil and Gas sector are:

- Japanese oil consumption is expected to remain static in 2012, at around 4.41mn barrels per day (b/d). Volumes had risen by an estimated 145,000b/d in 2011 following the earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March of the year, which resulted in greatly reduced nuclear generation and a significant upturn in oil- and gas-fired power generation to compensate. By 2016, the country is expected to be consuming 4.46mn b/d of oil, with demand predicted to head lower to no more than 4.40mn b/d by 2021.
- A Japanese consortium consisting of oil companies, oil refiners, engineering firms and state-run energy researcher Japan Oil, Gas & Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) in April 2012 announced a technological breakthrough in their research on the conversion of gas into synthetic fuels. Calling their research the Japan-GTL process, the consortium promises that the breakthrough will bring down costs of gas to liquids (GTL) conversion.
- In January 2012, ExxonMobil said it was in talks with subsidiary TonenGeneral Sekiyu regarding the possibility of restructuring its near-US$3bn stake in the oil refiner. Exxon said it had no plans to exit the Japanese market, contrary to recent speculation.
- BMI gas consumption estimates were revised upwards following the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. We expect gas demand to reach 110bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012, and demand is expected to rise steadily towards 112bcm by 2015/16 - largely in the form of imported LNG. By 2021, the country is expected to be consuming at least 115bcm of gas.

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