Fast Market Research recommends "Japan Shipping Report Q3 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/05/2013 -- Japan Enjoys A Mini-Recovery - But How Long Will It Last?
Japan is enjoying a mini-recovery as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe encourages wage increases and business spending. The government has tweaked tax policies to encourage companies to hire staff and boost investment. In fact, GDP grew by an annualised, seasonally adjusted, rate of 4.1% in Q113, led by healthy private consumption. There are also positive signs that business confidence is looking up. Abe's ruling LDP wants to do well in Upper House elections due in July, and it knows that it needs to get the economy moving to bring in the votes. BMI believes growth will pick up on the short term, and we have raised our 2013 GDP forecast to 1.4% from 0.9% previously. But at the same time we believe that the upside will be limited. Because of Japan's continuing fiscal imbalances we think the current recovery will start to stutter in H213 as rising government debt yields begin to 'squeeze out' private sector credit. In addition, import growth will remain a key drag on externally-driven growth for Japan.
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Headline Industry Data
- 2013 Port of Nagoya tonnage forecast to grow by 3.6% to reach 209.887mn tonnes, slower than the 8.8% growth rate achieved the preceding year. Box traffic at the same port will grow by 1.0% to 2.681mn TEUs.
- The Port of Tokyo will remain Japan's largest container terminal, with box traffic gaining 4.3% to 4.997mn TEUs, down from 5.2% growth in 2012.
- The Port of Yokohama will see 0.4% tonnage growth to 121.877mn tonnes, and 4.9% container growth to 3.202mn TEUs.
- 2013 total trade growth forecast to expand by 3.0% in real terms, a little faster than = the 2.5% achieved in 2012. Import growth will exceed exports.
MOL Reports Net Loss If US$1.9bn In Fiscal 2012
Japan-based shipping company MOL has reported a net loss of US$1.9bn in FY12 (the year ending March 31st 2013) against the loss of US$262mn reported in FY11. The company's revenues rose by 5.2% to US $15.1bn while operating loss totalled US$158mn, which represents a US$87.5mn rise over the operating loss of US$245.5mn recorded in fiscal 2012. MOL attributed its disappointing performance to 'market stagnation', which was a result of low demand at a time of high vessel supply.
But NYK Was In The Black
NYK Line has announced a net profit of JPY18.9mn (US$229.52mn) in FY12/13, according to press reports. This compared with a net loss of US$884.5mn in FY11/12. NYK Line reported sales revenue of US $23bn in FY12/13, a 4.9% increase from the previous year, in which the company made US$22bn.
..And A Weaker Yen Will Help Out The Big Three In FY13
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