Radio show features guest experts discussing U.S. and world economics.
Grand Rapids, MI -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/12/2013 -- Financial advisor Dennis Tubbergen can usually be found helping his own clients. When he has a few free minutes, he is busy writing his daily blog, his weekly newsletter Moving Markets or interviewing his next guest expert for his weekly radio show.
Tubbergen's next guest is Jeffrey Albert Tucker, the executive editor of Laissez Faire Books. Tucker is past editorial vice president of the Ludwig von Mises Institute and past editor for the Institute's website, Mises.org.
Tucker is also an adjunct scholar with the Mackinac Center for Public Policy and a faculty member at Acton University. He is the author of It's a Jetsons World: Private Miracles and Public Crimes and Bourbon for Breakfast: Living Outside the Status Quo.
Tubbergen, who is an author, radio show host, and CEO of PLP Advisors, LLC, spends a lot of time giving his opinions on the economy in his online financial blog. On March 6, his blog was titled Symptoms of a Winter Economic Season.
"As you may know, we believe that the world economy cycles through four economical sub-cycles that we label spring, summer, autumn and winter," began Tubbergen. "Here is a brief definition of each sub-cycle."
The Spring Cycle
During spring, an economy experiences a gradual increase in business and employment. Consumer confidence gradually increases. Consumer prices begin a gradual increase compared to levels seen during the previous cycle (the winter cycle). Stock prices rise and reach a peak at the end of the spring cycle. Interest rates begin to rise from historically low levels and credit gradually expands. At the beginning of the spring cycle, overall debt levels are low.
The Summer Cycle
During summer, an economy sees an increase in the money supply which leads to inflation. Gold prices reach a significant peak at the end of the summer period. Interest rates rise rapidly and peak at the end of the summer season. Stocks are under pressure and decline through the period reaching a low at the end of the summer cycle.
The Autumn Cycle
During autumn, money is plentiful and gold prices fall reaching a gold bear market low by the end of the autumn season. During autumn there is a massive stock bull market and much speculation. Financial fraud is prevalent and real estate prices rise significantly due to speculation. Debt levels are astronomical. Consumer confidence is at an all time high due to high stock prices, high real estate prices and plentiful jobs.
The Winter Cycle
During winter, an economy experiences a crippling credit crisis and money becomes scarce. Financial institutions are in trouble. There are unprecedented bankruptcies at the personal, corporate and government levels. There is a credit crunch and interest rates rise. There is an international monetary crisis. There are pension funding problems and the price of gold and gold-related equities rise.
"Note that one of the symptoms of the winter economic sub-cycle is that the system reaches its capacity for debt and the de-leveraging process begins," states Tubbergen. "A recent article by CNBC reported on a winter economic sub-cycle indicator."
Tubbergen quotes from the February 25, 2013 article below.
Rumors of the spendthrift American consumer may be slightly exaggerated. Bankrate's 2013 February Financial Security Index found that a majority of consumers - by a narrow margin - say they have more savings than credit card debt.
For more than half the country, 55 percent, an emergency fund outweighs credit card debt. Nearly a quarter, 24 percent, admit to having more debt on plastic than money in the bank, while 16 percent say they have neither credit card debt nor savings. That puts 40 percent of the population close to the edge of ruin while everyone else seems to be sitting pretty.
If most people have more savings than credit card debt, "Why are so many people broke?" asks Howard Dvorkin, CPA and founder of ConsolidatedCredit.org. It's a curious question. The answer may be that although credit card balances came down through the financial downturn that began in 2007, consumers' fundamental behavior of not saving enough did not change.
The article goes on to say that the fact of the matter is that America is broke. Whether this is due to credit cards, student loans or mortgages, we are broke. Dvorkin says the old rule of thumb was that people should have six months' of savings to live on in emergencies, but today a lot of people don't have two pennies.
"This is evidence that we are in a winter economy," concludes Tubbergen. "Debt levels reach their capacity during the autumn and then during the winter season, debt levels begin to decline and a deflationary period ensues. That's where we are today and will remain for several years until debt levels in the economy reach more sustainable levels."
To read the blog in its entirety go to http://www.dennistubbergen.com and select his February 25, 2013 entry.
Tubbergen’s syndicated radio show can be heard on metro Michigan stations WTKG 1230 AM and WOOD Newsradio1300 AM and 106.9 FM.
About The Host: Dennis Tubbergen
Dennis Tubbergen has been in the financial industry for over 25 years and has his corporate offices in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Tubbergen is CEO of PLP Advisors, LLC and has an online blog that can be read at www.dennistubbergen.com. To view Tubbergen’s latest Moving Markets? newsletter, go to www.moving-markets.com.
The opinions expressed herein are those of the writer and not necessarily those of USA Wealth Management, LLC. This update may contain forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements as to future events that involve various risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual events or results to differ materially from those that were forecasted. Therefore, no forecast should be construed as a guarantee. Prior to making any investment decision, individuals should consult a professional to determine the risks, costs, benefits and fees associated with a particular investment. Information obtained from third party resources is believed to be reliable but the accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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