Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/14/2013 -- The Jordanian market has experienced a volatile 2012, and the medium-term outlook contains some uncertainty. Our outlook for Jordan notes there is limited growth left in mobile subscriptions, with subscription additions dependent on lower income rural areas and refugees from Syria. However, there are positives as operators have made progress in terms of their strategies for developing mobile content and additional services that will generate stronger ARPUs in the longer run. For instance, data connectivity revenues should grow as mobile broadband continues to boom, but wireless data services also open to door to other potentially lucrative VAS such as m-banking, mobile VoIP and mobile video/music.

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Key Data

- Mobile subscription growth in 2012 was slightly higher than our estimate as net additions of refugees from Syria boost subscriptions. There were 9.056mn mobile subscriptions at the end of 2012, equal to penetration of 140.2%.
- Mobile ARPU declined markedly in 2012, pushed lower by price competition between operators and the reliance on lower income consumers, including refugees, and rural areas for subscription growth.
- The broadband market continued its rapid expansion in 2012, according to regulatory data, with total subscriptions increasing 62.9%. Mobile broadband continued to be the main driver of broadband subscription growth.

Risk/Reward Ratings

Jordan remained in 10th position in BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings table for Middle East And North Africa in the Q3 2013 update, despite a lower overall score due to accelerated decline in ARPU in 2012. Jordan scores below the regional average in the Industry Rewards, Country Rewards and Country Risk categories of our ratings table.

Key Trends And Developments

Mobile growth picked up in 2012, reaching 21.8% (compared to 12.8% in 2011). The reason for growth accelerating even as penetration is over 130% is that the influx of refugees from Syria resulted in a new population group eager for mobile services. The addition of generally lower income consumers has had a detrimental impact on monthly blended ARPU, however, operators are attempting to offset this price pressure by developing wireless data networks and services.

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