Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/28/2015 -- Iraq's telecoms market offers a mix of great opportunity and heavy risks. The country's large population and a penetration rate still below 100% underpin our generally positive growth outlook for the country's telecoms sector between 2014 and 2018. Moreover, a final agreement between operators and the government on 3G spectrum and subsequent launch of 3G services at the very end of 2014 creates massive opportunities in Iraq's wildly underserved data market. However the deteriorated security situation has begun to take its toll on the sector, with network outages resulting in sharp mobile subscriptions losses in Q314 and ARPUs continuing to fall. BMI's Country Risk team expects ISIS to remain a resilient fighting force over the coming years, which will weigh on private consumption levels in the country, and keep operating costs and the cost of reaching national 3G coverage high for operators.

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Key Data

- The mobile market contracted by 5.8% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q314, dragging the penetration rate to 91.2%.

- As in FY13, Zain Iraq and Asiacell's ARPUs continued to fall in 9M14. The launch of 3G services at the start of 2015 may help to offset the negative impact conflict in the country is having on ARPU levels.

- Iraq has one of the lowest fixed-line and broadband penetration rates in the region, at 5.6% and 1.6% respectively at the end of 2013, though 3G will buoy the latter between 2015 and 2018.

Risk/Reward Ratings

Iraq fell two places to 11th position in BMI's MENA Telecoms Risk/Reward Index (RRI) table in Q115, although its aggregate score remains unchanged at 46.7. Therefore, rather than a weaker outlook for Iraq, its lower rank is due to the outperformance of other markets in the Levant and North Africa. While the launch of 3G services will help to boost Iraq's score over the coming quarters, we expect this will be met with equal weighting to the downside from increased political stability, which negatively impacted subscriptions...

The Iraq Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Iraq's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Iraq Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Iraq.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Iraq to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi telecoms market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in Iraq's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.

- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI?s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fi xed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G ), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

- Fixed-line Telephony Telephone lines (?000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.

- Cellular Telephony Mobile phone subscribers (?000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (?000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.

- Internet Markets Internet users (?000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (?000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

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