Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Mexico Freight Transport Report Q1 2015", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/21/2015 -- Following energy sector reform Mexico will garner significant foreign investment. We remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.7% in 2015, up from 2.6% in 2014.
We expect real private consumption growth in Mexico to accelerate. After slowing from 3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H113 to 1.4% y-o-y in H114, we forecast real private consumption growth of 3.7% in 2015. New taxes on several consumer goods that took effect on January 1 2014 weighed on private consumption in the first half of the year. However, consumer confidence has been improving, signalling that the effects of the tax hikes are receding.
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Mexico's booming manufacturing sector, increasingly strong private consumption and favourable demographics suggest that it is well placed to see solid economic expansion. We forecast robust 4.1% average real GDP growth over the coming decade. We expect Mexico's oil sector to become an increasingly important driver of growth following energy sector liberalisation in December 2013.
Headline Industry Data
- Air freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.6% in 2015, to reach 109,140 tonnes.
- Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.4% in 2015, to reach 541.16mn tonnes.
- Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 3.5% in 2015, to reach 119mn tonnes.
- Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2015 is forecast to hit 7.2%, to reach 32.8mn tonnes.
Key Trends And Developments: FedEx: Mexico Key To Realising LATAM Strategy
The strong demand for US imports to Mexico will drive revenue growth for US logistics operator Federal Express (Fed Ex) as components of its Latin America ground and air expansion plan, which came online in 2013 and 2014, begin to pay dividends. We hold this view despite a year-on-year revenue tonne-mileage decline in its air cargo wing FEDEX Express in the first seven months of 2014.
The Mexico Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Mexico Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI?s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top 5 import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn).
- Port Data: Throughput (?000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%).
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