Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/26/2015 -- Following a year in which BMI saw mixed growth dynamics across Russia's freight transport sector, with volumes either declining or growth slowing in most of the freight modes, 2015 will signal a further slowdown as the country's economy is expected to contract and the main driver of growth over the past decade - household consumption - continues to weaken.

Total trade is estimated to have decreased by 0.75% in real terms in 2014. It is projected to pick up, with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 3.0% in 2015.

Rail freight is to continue to dominate the sector in terms of turnover, which is projected to decline by 4% in 2015. We are seeing a consolidation of players in this freight transport mode, with major mining and steel producing firms selling their transport subsidiaries and major private logistics players developing in Russia's rail freight system.

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Headline Industry Data

- 2015 Air freight is expected to decrease by 2%
- 2015 Rail freight is forecast to decrease by 3.5%
- 2015 Port of St Petersburg throughput is forecast to grow by 1%
- 2015 Road freight is forecast to decrease by 5.4%
- 2015 Inland waterway freight is forecast to decrease by 1.8%
- 2015 Total real trade growth is forecast at 3%.

Key Industry Trends

Uptick in Cargo Tonnage at Vostochny - Cargo tonnage at the port Vostochny will continue to expand in 2015, on the back of robust growth in Russia's coal exports via the Far Eastern port. BMI forecasts cargo tonnage to increase in 2015 to 22.7mn tonnes, based on an upward revision to our estimates for 2014.

Russia's Role in China's Export Supply Chains to Increase- Russia-China cooperation on the expansion of the Russian port in Zarubino will see Russia play a larger role in China's logistics sector. The expansion will shorten transit times for exports from the corn-rich Jilin region close to the border port and will increase Russia's role in China's agricultural supply chain.

DB Schenker's Europe-China Rail Service...

The Russia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Russia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Russian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI?s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top 5 import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn).
- Port Data: Throughput (?000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%).

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