Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/07/2013 -- Core Views

We believe Colombia's economy will expand at robust growth rates in the coming years, characterised by improved macroeconomic conditions and an increasingly friendly business environment.

Private consumption, while moderating, will drive the majority of growth, although gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) will play an increasingly important role over the coming quarters.

The infrastructure, mining and hydrocarbons sectors are particularly well positioned for growth.

Major Forecast Changes

We revised down our 2012 real GDP growth estimate from 4.4% to 3.8%, on the back of an unexpected slowdown in the construction sector. However, we expect the sector to improve in 2013 as the slowdown was driven by a temporary delay in public works permits. As such we maintain our 2013 and 2014 real GDP growth forecasts of 4.3% and 4.4%, respectively.

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We have revised down our end-2013 central bank policy rate forecast from 3.50% to 3.00%, as we believe record low inflation will prompt monetary officials to seek additional growth-supportive monetary easing.

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risks: Elevated foreign investment inflows into the country following Colombia's upgrade to 'investment grade' by all three major ratings agencies could drive growth even faster than expected.

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