Fast Market Research recommends "Kuwait Retail Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/30/2013 -- The Kuwait Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Kuwait's economic outlook of depressed capital spending on the part of the government.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Kuwaiti retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the possibility of oil prices declining further than expected on the Kuwaiti consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Kuwaiti retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Kuwait comes fourth (out of seven) in BMI's Middle East and Africa (MEA) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms slightly for risk.
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Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be one of the outperformers between 2013 and 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by almost 29% from US$1.10bn to US$1.42bn, on the back of a high-earning, tech-literate population. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in trade liberalisation, with the elimination of customs duties within the Gulf Cooperation Council continuing to stimulate the market; and in telecoms deregulation and 3G expansion, which will drive competition in value-added services and support spending levels on handsets.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI expects the Kuwaiti economy to perform relatively well over 2013, but at a more modest pace than in recent years, with economic growth driven by robust domestic consumption, but dragged down by a plateau in oil production and exports. BMI's Oil & Gas team projects Kuwaiti oil production to grow by only 0.3% in 2013, with flat growth in exports as a result. Accordingly, we have revised downward our real GDP forecast for the year to 3.0% (from 3.7% previously), although we note the presence of a sizeable upside risk, in the form of the government's newfound domination of the legislative branch.
- Indicators of consumer sentiment are positive on the whole, with the YouGov/Bayt.com Consumer Confidence Index reaching 88.4 in October 2012, broadly unchanged from the rest of the year (although a modest sample size limits the index's usefulness). Point-of-sale and ATM transactions rose by a respective 19.2% and 7.9% year-on-year in Q312, according to data from the Central Bank of Kuwait. We forecast household consumption to grow by 3.5% in 2013, providing a boost of approximately 1% to the headline GDP figure.
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