Fast Market Research recommends "Mexico Retail Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/13/2013 -- The Mexico Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Mexico's economic outlook of moderating external demand, feeding through to weaker consumer confidence and weighing on private consumption.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Mexican retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a eurozone crisis or rapid slowdown in Chinese growth on the Mexican consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Mexican retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Mexican per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a respectable 25% between 2013 and 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 17%. The country comes third out of seven in BMI's LatAm retail risk/reward ratings, although it underperforms slightly in the 'reward' category.
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Among all retail categories, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales expected to rise by 38.8% between 2013 and 2016, from US$2.01bn to US$2.79bn.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in President Felipe Calderon having signed a decree to amend the regulation of health supplies, which should strengthen Mexico's business environment and encourage domestic industry growth.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI is modestly revising up its 2012 real GDP growth estimate, from 3.8% to 4.0%, to take into account stronger-than-anticipated export growth in H112. We maintain our 2013 forecast of 3.4%, implying a noticeable deceleration.
- After robust 5.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) real growth in H112, BMI anticipates a moderation in private consumption in coming quarters, forecasting growth of 4.6% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013. We forecast that, after contributing a substantial 3.2 percentage points (pp) to headline growth in 2012, private consumption's contribution will fall to 2.5pp in 2013.
- BMI's forecast for moderating private consumption has been reinforced by recent retail sales data, which showed a disappointing rise of just 2.6% in July 2012, following a sharp decline the previous month. However, sales rose more than expected in August, by 4.8% y-o-y. In the first eight months of 2012, retail sales were up 4.6% from the same period in 2011.
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