Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Nigeria Shipping Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/18/2013 -- Nigeria's budget deficit is expected to narrow in 2013, to 1.5% of GDP, compared to an estimated 2.3% in 2012, on the back of improved revenue collection. However, risks are to the downside. Unforeseen expenditures, most notably the large military push in the northern states of Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa to root out militant groups like Boko Haram will exert pressure on the government's finances, with a possible knock on effect on the shipping sector.
Nigeria is Africa's leading oil producer, which enables it to maintain a healthy surplus in the trade account. This, accompanied by recent moves to limit some types of food imports, will keep the current account safely in the black over the coming years. We are forecasting a current account surplus of 8.3% of GDP in 2013, compared to 8.0% in 2012.
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Nigeria's shipping industry is expected to perform strongly between 2013 and 2017, with the Port of Lagos set to remain the country's largest in terms of tonnage throughput. We have stuck to our forecasts from last quarter and so continue to foresee the largest annual growth occurring at the Port of Tincan Island (10.79%), while Nigeria's other main ports are all set to enjoy a profitable 2013. We forecast growth at Lagos of 6.48% and at Harcourt of 5.18%.
Annual GDP growth forecasts averaging 7.1% per annum between 2013 and 2017 and a population reaching close to 170mn people present a consumer demand picture in Nigeria which is driving container shipments up, increasing the pressure on Nigeria's ports. Partial privatisation has helped eliminate overstaffing at the ports, cargo theft and excessive port-related charges, in addition to unlocking funds for infrastructure improvements, which were the main challenges faced by the port authority.
Headline Industry Data
- 2013 Port of Lagos tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 6.48%.
- 2013 Port Harcourt tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 5.18%.
- 2013 Port of Tincan Island throughput is forecast to increase by 10.79%.
- 2013 trade growth forecast at 7.40%.
Key Industry Trends
APMT Meets State Officials Over Investment: Senior officials at APM Terminals (APMT) have met with the Nigerian Federal Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment Olusegun Aganga and a delegation of government officials as part of ongoing negotiations on port infrastructure investment.
Concessionaires' Investments In Facilities Reach NGN148bn: Total investments by concessionaires in Nigerian seaport facilities have reached around NGN148bn (US$925mn) since 2006, reported Sun News in June 2013. The investments were focused on terminal development, as well as the acquisition of cargo handling equipment, and are aimed at increasing efficiency of the Nigerian maritime sector.
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