Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/15/2013 -- BMI View: The agriculture industry (including forestry and aquaculture) contributes to more than 20% of Vietnam's GDP and employs almost half its population. It holds strong growth opportunities in terms of production, exports and retail sales, more specifically with regard to the coffee and livestock sectors.

However, some industries face large risks in terms of losing competitive advantage as other Asian countries step up production, particularly of rice and coffee. We believe Vietnam will have to significantly ramp up investment in crop productivity in order to not be left behind, and if it wants to be able to produce more value-added crops and maintain its status as an export spearhead.

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Key Forecasts

- Rice consumption growth to 2017: 7.7% to 21.3mn tonnes. Rice remains the major food staple in Vietnam, and we do not see this changing over our forecast period. However, rising interest in other foods such as wheat-based goods - supported by growing affluence - will restrict demand for rice, and over the forecast period we expect production growth to significantly outpace that of consumption.
- Coffee production growth to 2016/17: 28.0% to 29.1mn bags. Strong growth in domestic coffee production will be driven by increasing investment, leading to tree replacement programmes and expansion of area cultivated. Consumption growth and export prospects will also favour output.
- Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 27.2% to 954,000 tonnes. Dramatic increases in herd numbers and increased public and private sector investment - part of the effort to reduce the country's growing import dependency - will be the main boost to growth. Rising consumption, driven by income growth, will also play a key role.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$22.9bn in 2013 (down from US$23.1bn in 2012); growth expected to average 2.9% annually between 2012 and 2017.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 7.0% (down from 5.3% in 2012; predicted to average 6.9% over 2012-2017).
- 2013 consumer price index: 6.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) (lower than 9.2% in 2012; predicted to average 6.2% over 2012-2017).
- 2013 central bank policy rate: 9.00% (lower than 10.00% in 2012; predicted to average 7.8% over 2012-2017)

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