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"Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q2 2013" Published

New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q2 2013"


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/07/2013 -- BMI View: We expect the Kazakh grain sector to outperform, especially as Kazakhstan gets more export opportunities to Central Asia and China. We see limited growth for the livestock and dairy sectors, as export potential for both industries will remain limited. Only domestic demand, which we expect to be strong, could partially encourage domestic production. That said, cheap imports from Russia could put local growers at a disadvantage. We have not identified any major public company operating in the sector that we would highlight.

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Key Forecasts

- Wheat production to 2016/17: -18.6% to 18.5mn tonnes. Efforts to diversify into oilseeds and other field crops and little potential for a repeat of the perfect conditions of 2011/12 will see production fall over our five-year forecast period.
- Butter consumption growth to 2017: 65.3% to 73,400 tonnes. This will come from increased demand for value-added dairy products on the back of accelerating urbanisation and improvements in infrastructure.
- Beef production growth to 2016/17: 35.7% to 576,700 tonnes. The comprehensive overhaul of the beef herd continues apace as imported breeding stocks improve quality.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 5.8%, up from 5.3% in 2012.
- 2013 average consumer price inflation: 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 5.1% y-o-y in 2012.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 34.7% y-o-y decrease to US$6.9bn in 2012/13, forecast to grow on average 10.6% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.

Industry Outlook

We have revised down further our forecast for wheat production in Kazakhstan in 2012/13 to 9.9mn tonnes (a 56.7% y-o-y fall) on the back of the latest official estimates from the country's statistical agency. The agency's numbers show a decline in both area harvested and yields. However, the decline in yields was far sharper than the fall in area harvested, as severe droughts drastically reduced soil moisture in growing regions. We have revised down our 2013/14 forecast to 16.0mn tonnes (from 17.0mn tonnes previously) as the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture announced at the end of January its expectation that area planted to wheat would fall by about 2% to 13.1mn hectares. We believe the recovery in yields will be sufficient to take production 62.4% higher y-o-y in 2013/14, but still below its 2011/12 level.

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