Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/14/2013 -- BMI View: Kenya's power sector continues to diversify its energy generation capability. Although hydropower generation remains vulnerable to drought and variations in rainfall, additional hydro facilities are being developed in order to reduce the country's dependence on costly oil-fired capacity. While coalbased generating schemes should provide electricity supply over the medium term, over the longer term, we believe non-hydro renewables are to play a much bigger role in the country's energy mix. Most notably, we see geothermal as the favoured form of renewable energy, as its potential is considerable.

BMI anticipates that Kenya's overall power generation will grow by an annual average of 10.57% between 2012 to 2016, to reach 13.08TWh. Driving this growth will be a 29.97% annual average increase in nonhydropower renewables. Thermal is also expected to increase by an annual average of 11.43%, while hydropower power generation is expected to decline by an annual average of 4.54% respectively over the period. Oil-fired generation is expected to fall by an annual average of 9.03% as hydro increases in availability. We expect coal-fired power to become commercially available from 2015 and beyond.

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The key trends and developments in the country's power sector are:

- Although we think that the forthcoming Kenyan elections will proceed relatively peacefully, we highlight several security problems, including rising Islamic extremism, inter-religious tensions, ethnic cleavages and the authorities' response to rising secessionist tendencies, that could provide the basis for instability before, during or after the vote. We believe that Nairobi, Coast province and northeastern province are particularly significant risk areas over the next quarter or so.
- Raila Odinga is the favourite to win the Kenyan presidential election, however it will be a tight race and could very well go to a second round. A victory for the coalition which includes Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto will make relations with foreign powers extremely complicated given their upcoming trials at the International Criminal Court. Furthermore, the basis for the formation of electoral alliances shows that Kenyan politics remains ethnically polarised.
- Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga has signed t a deal between Daewoo International and the Kenyan Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) for the construction of a new coal-fired power station in Kilifi County. The power station will cost US$1.3bn and its two turbines will generate 300 megawatts, making it one of the largest power station in East Africa.

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