Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Kenya Shipping Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/06/2013 -- BMI remains relatively bullish about Kenya's economic outlook in 2013. As we had expected, the March elections went ahead in relatively peaceful fashion. Although these are still early days for President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta, and significant risks remain (including the legal challenge from his defeated rival Raila Odinga), it seems that the most feared outcome, a repeat of the tribal violence that broke out in the previous elections in 2008, now seems unlikely. That fact on its own is likely to be a boost to investment and business confidence. Coupled with recent falls in inflation and borrowing costs that have encouraged consumer demand, we believe that as a result GDP growth will accelerate to 5.8% in 2013, up from an estimated 4.5% in 2012. Weak demand for Kenyan exports from the still-struggling eurozone will have a dampening effect, but to some extent this will be offset by strong growth among the country's main African trading partners.
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BMI has a positive outlook for Kenya's ports and shipping sector, based on three main factors: reasonable economic growth in Kenya itself; a dynamic East African region (important because Mombasa acts as a trade gateway for many of Kenya's neighbouring countries); and finally, the continuing signs that the port's ongoing congestion problems are easing. Granted, there are significant threats to Mombasa's almostmonopoly like role in this part of Africa, but they exist on the long term
Headline Industry Data
- Port of Mombasa tonnage throughput forecast to grow 8.2% in 2013 to reach 23.720mn tones. Growth to average 7.8% a year in the medium term to 2017.
- Container throughput at the same port forecast to grow 16.2% in 2013 to reach 1.049mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Box growth to average 13.0% per annum to 2017.
- 2013 total trade set for year-on-year (y-o-y) real growth of 6.0% and to average 6.8% per annum to 2017.
Key Industry Trends
Mombasa Faces New Tanzanian Challenge
A new port has been proposed at Tanga, located in the north of Tanzania, one component of a three-part plan for the East African country proposed by the Mwambani Port and Railway Corridor Company (MWAPORC). The deep-sea port would have a depth of up to 24 metres (m), enabling it to easily handle the largest ships currently under construction, which require a draught of 17m. Other parts of the ambitious multi-billion dollar plan include the creation of an industrial and logistics zone and a freight railway connection to neighbouring countries, including a potential link to Africa's Atlantic ports. Given the proposed site of the new port, it is certain that the new facility would come into direct competition with the Kenyan port of Mombasa, currently the largest port serving the region. Depending therefore on whether MWAPORC succeeds in raising the necessary funding, Mombasa cold face a serious long-term threat.
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