New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/20/2013 -- BMI has a positive outlook for Kenya's ports and shipping sector based on three main factors: reasonable economic growth in Kenya itself; a dynamic East African region (this is important because Mombasa acts as a trade gateway for many of Kenya's neighbouring countries); and finally, continuing signs that the port's ongoing congestion problems are easing. Granted, there are significant threats to Mombasa's almost monopoly-like role in this part of Africa, but they exist on the long term.
On Track For Strong Growth In 2013 and 2014
We are maintaining our upbeat outlook for the Kenyan economy, predicting GDP growth of 5.7% this year, rising to 6.2% next. Our forecast has been strengthened by good numbers for Q113, when the economy defied concerns over an election-related slowdown to post 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth led by construction and agriculture with only the tourism sector showing weakness. With a post-elections confidence boost still making itself felt, we believe that household consumption and both public and private investment will drive the economy forward over the next few quarters. Consumption is looking resilient, even though the new government has said it will look at introducing a value-added tax which, depending on the approach taken, could add 16% to the final prices of a range of basic goods. President Uhuru Kenyatta's focus on infrastructure should also boost public sector investment. We are less bullish about net exports: while the country's exports to its dynamic neighbours and fellow-members of the East African Community (EAC) are set to grow strongly, demand for consumer and capital goods will probably keep import growth higher.
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Headline Industry Data
- Port of Mombasa tonnage throughput forecast to grow 6.3.% in 2013 to reach 23.303mn tonnes. Growth to average 5.5% a year in the medium term to 2017.
- Container throughput at the same port forecast to grow 13.0% in 2013 to reach 1.02mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Box growth to average 12.4% per annum to 2017.
- 2013 total trade set for y-o-y real growth of 6.0% (up from 3.8% in 2012) and to average 6.8% per annum to 2017.
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