New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Kuwait Business Forecast Report Q4 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/05/2013 -- The Kuwaiti economy will remain on a moderate expansion path heading into 2014, with growth supported by robust private consumption and a modest rise in oil production and exports. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.0% for 2013, slowing slightly to 2.6% in 2014.
We remain cautious about Kuwait's fixed investment outlook, and note that political evolutions will continue to present both upside and downside risks to our growth forecasts.
Kuwait has seen a flurry of populist legislation recently, including several measures specifically targeting expatriate workers. This runs the risk of increasing uncertainty within the private sector, as well as cementing perceptions of the country as a hub of policy instability.
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We expect some tensions to remain between the government and the legislative branch, even if a renewed 'loyalist' parliament is elected.
Consumer price inflation in Kuwait has stayed largely subdued of late, with a decline in international food prices helping to offset higher non-food inflation. We see inflationary pressures remaining weak over the rest of the year, and project the headline print to average 3.0% in 2013 - down from our previous forecast of 4.0%.
Key Risks To Outlook
As ever, given the economy's heavy dependence on oil, any sustained downturn in global energy prices would prove disastrous.
That said, Kuwait has the financial wherewithal to cope with any short-term volatility in oil prices, and therefore the underlying risks in this regard are minimal.
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