Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/28/2013 -- BMI View: Kuwait's rise in output will be relatively slow and steady, and we forecast the country producing 3.5mn barrels per day (b/d) by 2021. However, as the domestic economy grows, a substantial rise in oil consumption will reduce the oil that is available for the export market. We forecast a faster increase in gas production in the second half of our 10-year forecast period, with output going above 16bcm in 2020. Kuwait will remain a net gas importer and refined products exporter.

We highlight these trends and developments in Kuwait's oil & gas sector:

- BMI forecasts Kuwaiti oil production rising from an estimated 2.5mn b/d in 2011 to 2.9mn b/d by 2016, then over 3.5mn b/d by 2021. The country's northern oilfields in particular offer potential for significant growth in the years ahead.
- The advance of Project Kuwait, an ambitious scheme to enable international oil companies' (IOCs) upstream investment, is critical to boosting oil production, given the mature nature of the giant Burgan field. However, bureaucratic gridlock has persistently disrupted the implementation of the plan, hampering investment and therefore weighing on production capacity.
- Regulatory approval of the long-delayed al-Zour refinery and the Clean Fuels Project will allow Kuwait to significantly boost both production and exports of refined products, including lowsulphur diesel and Euro-4 gasoline.
- Significant non-associated gas in the Jurassic fields in Kuwait's north must be monetised in order to lessen dependence on gas imports, which we see continuing through to 2021. LNG imports could be supplemented by the re-activation of pipeline imports from Iraq (which have been suspended since 1990).
- We expect Kuwaiti gas production to rise from an estimated 12.3bcm in 2011 to over 16bcm by 2021, with imports rising to around 6.4bcm by the end of our 10-year forecast period.

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