New Construction market report from Business Monitor International: "Libya Infrastructure Report 2015"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/22/2015 -- Our view that reconstruction efforts would lead to a recovery in Libya's construction industry has been delayed by a dramatic increase in security and political risks over 2014. With no central government able to plan or financing national projects or investment strategies and intermittent oil exports, we have cut our forecasts for real growth in the construction sector over 2015. We forecast that the industry will contract by 25% in 2015. Over the long-term, Libya will need major investment to rebuild and update its infrastructure.
Factors underlining our outlook for Libyan infrastructure:
- There are now two administrations operating in Libya, one in Tripoli and the other in Tobruk. Coupled with increased levels of violence, this has caused a breakdown in governance and the ability to plan and fund infrastructure projects.
- The Housing & Infrastructure Board (HIB) was tasked to deliver 200,000 new homes, with supporting infrastructure, over the next few years. It was thought that the HIB would restart the region's largest housing project, with an estimated USD100bn cost, by end-2013, although we now note that government finances will unlikely allow for even small scale implementation of the programme.
- International firms have been pulling out of Libya, or further delaying their return due to the risk of kidnapping and violence. Libya will rely heavily on international expertise, especially planning and delivery of projects, when the situation stabilises. Aecom had returned to Libya and has announced that after cancelling many Gaddafi-era contracts, around 300 projects still need to be reactivated. Combined, they have a price tag of USD30bn. It is also hoped that Aecom will establish a procurement process, which will make future project awards much less susceptible to the corruption charges placed on many previously awarded contracts.
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The Libya Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Libya Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Libyan infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Libya to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Libyan infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Libyan infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Libya.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI?s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
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