New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Libya Oil & Gas Report Q3 2014"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/07/2014 -- Despite the release of key port infrastructure and the return of production from the major El Sharara oil field, ongoing political instability and recurrent production shut-ins will continue to weigh on overall oil and gas production levels, constraining attempts to ramp-up export capacity. Over the longer term, reservoir and infrastructural damage due to repeated outages, weakened investor sentiment and a deficit of greenfield investments will combine to lower the country's sustainable output levels.
The key trends and developments in Libya's oil and gas sector are:
- Ongoing instability in Libya has affected production in H1 2014, and we expect this dynamic to continue throughout the year. We forecast 2014 production of 350,000 barrels per day (b/d), with a recovery in 2015 to around 750,000b/d. We have revised down our longer-term forecast, expecting weaker investor sentiment and infrastructural and reservoir damage to drag down the country's sustainable production levels, below previous levels
- We estimate that in 2013 gas production declined to about 7.8bn cubic metres (bcm), as a result of unplanned supply outages. Production is unlikely to rebound before 2015, assuming a gradual easing in political tensions. Beyond 2015, we see a slow increase in gas production to reach 15.5bcm in 2018 and 19.8bcm by 2023.
- The risks to our view lie heavily to the upside and an improvement in Libya's political situation and resultant gains in operational stability could support a rapid increase in oil and gas production.
- Libya's oil and gas reserves stood at an estimated at 48.0bn barrels (bbl) and 1.6trn cubic metres (tcm), respectively, at the start of 2014. However, political risks, the introduction of new production sharing contracts and a revised hydrocarbon law are all likely to affect the country's business environment and international appetite for investment.
- We expect refineries to operate below their utilisation rate, both due to...
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The Libya Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Libya including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Libya Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Libyan oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Libya to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Libyan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Libya.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View:
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Business Environment Rankings:
BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.
Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products
BMI Industry Forecasts:
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
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