Fast Market Research recommends "Lithuania Freight Transport Report 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/14/2013 -- BMI continues to see signs of a slowdown in economic activity over the coming quarters, which we expect to persist into 2013. However, a slight adjustment to our net export forecasts has seen our real GDP growth forecast for 2012 move up from 1.9% to 2.3%. This should provide some degree of comfort for the country's freight industry. The air and maritime sectors in Lithuania are set to perform the best out of all the modes, while 2013 will mark something of a rebound following the dismal 12 months previously.
Central to the success of Lithuania's freight industry is the health of the eurozone and Russia - the country's two largest export markets. In terms of the eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB)'s plan to purchase encumbered eurozone sovereign debt could already be starting to unravel, with the recent slide in the euro being a warning signal for policymakers that investor sentiment remains fragile.
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During the height of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, we argued that Greece had become an important litmus test for the efficacy of combined fiscal consolidation and internal devaluation - an unorthodox policy that, if successful, would become the benchmark for reform elsewhere in the eurozone. Rather, it is now Spain that has become the new battleground over which the future of the euro will be fought.
In the same way that Greece was a test bed for unorthodox crisis resolution policies, Spain will become a crucial cast study in the efficacy of ECB's new bond purchase facility in stabilising sovereign debate markets and simultaneously fostering economic reform. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy may not realise it, but he has inadvertently become the guardian of systemic stability in the eurozone.
Headline Industry Data
- We expect air freight volumes to grow 4.40% to 10,650 tonnes in 2013. We believe growth will average 3.94% a year in the five years to 2017.
- At the Port of Klaipeda, we forecast growth in cargo volume of 4.69% to 39.76mn tonnes in 2013.
- We expect rail freight volumes to grow by 1.33% to 52.6mn tonnes in 2013.
- In 2013, we expect total road tonnage volume to increase by 2.05% to 47.47mn tonnes.
Key Industry Trends
Baltic Box Competition Heats Up
Lithuania's Port of Klaipeda was crowned the best port in the Baltics in terms of box throughput once more in the first quarter of 2012. We highlight that its rivals are gaining, however, as ports in Latvia and Estonia switch their strategies toward the box shipping sector in order to diversify away from the liquid bulk market, which is drying up as Russia decreases its use of Baltic ports for its oil and petroleum products exports.
AAA Intermodal Introduces Container Rail Service
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