Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/12/2013 -- We are sanguine towards the Malaysian agriculture sector due to the strong focus on value adding to agriculture products. Indeed, we believe the government and private sector players are heading in the right direction by investing in refining capabilities and moving up the value chain for agriculture products, such as palm oil and cocoa. In the near term, the strong ringgit and relatively lower prices of raw agriculture imports of products such as sugar, cocoa and palm oil is likely to keep export earnings buoyed this year.

Key Forecasts

- Palm oil production growth to 2016/17: 10.9% to 20.8mn tonnes. Growth will be supported as companies replant mature estates and yields improve on the back of better technology.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2017: 10.0% to 1.6mn tonnes. The dominance and continued expansionary activities of market players F&N, Permanis and Yeo Hiap Seng have fuelled considerable growth in the Malaysian soft drinks sector, a significant factor fuelling demand for sugar.
- Cocoa production growth to 2017: 12.2% to 10,100 tonnes. Cocoa yields on the Peninsular (the second largest cocoa-producing region behind Sabah) have increased due to the Malaysian Cocoa Board (MCB)'s distribution of high yielding seeds and incentive programmes for farmers to switch to cocoa. The MCB also started in 2011 a plan to ramp up cocoa planting areas.
- 2013 BMI universe agribusiness market value: 4.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to US$25.3bn (contributes to 8.2% of GDP)
- 2013 real GDP growth: 4.5% (up from 4.2% in 2012, forecast to average 4.2% from 2012 to 2017).
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 2.0% (up from 1.7% in 2012, forecast to average 2.2% from 2012 to 2017).
- 2013 lending rate: 5.5% % ave (same as 2012, forecast to average 5.8% from 2012 to 2017).

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Key Revision To Forecasts

- 2011/12 palm oil production raised from 18.7mn tonnes to 18.8mn tonnes in line with the latest government release on annual production.

Key Developments

Crude palm oil exports are forecast to grow by a meagre 1.0% to 16.8mn tonnes in 2012/13 on the back of strong global growth of vegetable oils and the new export tax regime on crude palm exports. Consequently, domestic ending stocks are estimated to grow by 8% from 2.5mn tonnes to 2.7mn tonnes.

Malaysia's biggest sugar refiner (at 57% of market share), MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd, is poised to see its earnings grow this year, helped by rising consumption of the sweetener in the country and export markets. This is bolstered by expectations for a strong ringgit, coupled with the lower cost of sugar.

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