Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Malaysia Autos Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/01/2014 -- Vehicle Sales
In line with our view that auto sales will enjoy a tailwind from promotions and the launch of new models in H213 (see 'Passenger Car Sales Will Get Promotional Lift In H213', July 24), vehicle sales have indeed been posting stronger growth in the past few months, as buyers took advantage of the festive season and the launch of new models.
We believe vehicle sales will remain buoyant for the rest of 2013 as consumer sentiment continues to remain positive. Indeed, as we previously highlighted, the recently concluded elections in May 2013, which brought the ruling government back into power, have brought stability back into the market. Furthermore, automakers are expected to hold year-end marketing campaigns, which we see as providing a nice tailwind for vehicle sales, keeping them firmly in line to meet our 2013 growth forecast of 4.1%, to 653,000 units.
Risks To 2014 Sales Outlook
One risk to auto sales is the end of the import and excise duties exemption for hybrid cars. These incentives are slated to expire on December 31 2013. The exemption in duties has allowed hybrid car sales to grow strongly since 2010, with Toyota Motor and Honda Motor introducing new models to take advantage of the policy.
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While only 332 hybrids were sold in 2010, sales for the first seven months of 2013 came in at 8,571 units, highlighting the positive impact of the hybrid incentives. Although the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) is lobbying the government to extend the tax incentives on hybrids beyond 2013, the government is keen to promote domestic production of fuel efficient vehicles, and may choose to instead provide manufacturing incentives for hybrid cars in its upcoming revised National Automotive Policy. While this will be positive for vehicle production in the medium- to long term, sales will experience a slight dip as imported hybrid cars become more expensive.
Long-Term Auto Sales Forecast
On a long-term basis, BMI remains positive on the outlook for the Malaysian auto industry, Strong consumer sentiment will continue to drive passenger car (PC) sales over our 2013-2017 forecast period, with the country's ongoing Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) - a government-led initiative to transform Malaysia into a developed nation by 2020 through investments in key economic sectors -ensuring a steady demand for commercial vehicles (CVs). In 2017, BMI is currently forecasting a total of 799,061 vehicles to be sold in Malaysia, made up of 703,996 PCs and 95,061 CVs.
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