New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/02/2013 -- Election Pushes, Slower Global Demand Pulls
The Malaysian economy has been receiving two different signals since our last quarterly report. First, we judge the net result of general elections held in early May to be a largely positive signal. Despite a stronger showing from the opposition, the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition of Prime Minister Najib Razak was re-elected with a simple majority in parliament (133 seats out of a total of 222). We see this as an endorsement of existing market-friendly policies, and in particular of the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP). We are expecting a post-electoral boost to investment. Sectors such as infrastructure, higher-value manufacturing, and financial services are likely to outperform. We also expect domestic consumer demand to remain resilient. The second signal for the economy is a negative one: the outlook for external demand is lacklustre, as there is growing evidence that the Chinese economy is beginning to cool while economic conditions in Europe, another key Malaysian export market, remain poor. We believe this weaker external demand was an important factor behind a slowdown in GDP growth, from 6.5% year-onyear (y-o-y) in Q412 to 4.1% y-o-y in Q113. Taking these factors into account, we are maintaining our existing forecast for GDP growth this year at 4.6%. Our medium terms outlook is for growth to average 4.3% per annum in the period running up to 2017.
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Relative to our previous quarterly shipping report, we have marginally eased back our forecasts for the country's major ports (Port Klang and Port Tanjung Pelepas). Bulk tonnage and container traffic will rise by between 2% and 5% this year, and we now expect most ports to lag, rather than lead GDP percentage growth.
Headline Industry Data
- The real value of Malaysia's total trade will rise by 3.4% in 2013, a small increase on the estimated 2.3% expansion experienced in 2012.
- Total cargo volume handled at Port Klang will rise by 2.9% to 203.64mn tonnes in 2013, while volume at the Port of Tanjung Pelepas will rise by a slightly higher 3.1% to 122.81mn tonnes.
- Box traffic at Port Klang is projected to rise 4.96% to 10.5mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), while at the Port of Tanjung Pelepas a gain of 2.1% to 7.86mn TEUs is expected.
Key Industry Trends
IJM Corp Brings Chinese Partner In To Invest In Kuantan: Malaysia's IJM Corporation, the operator of Kuantan Port, is set to spend nearly MYR2bn (US$628mn) to build a new deepwater terminal. The new terminal has been designed to berth vessels having up to 200,000 deadweight tonnage of capacity.
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