Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/05/2013 -- BMI View: Although the Malaysian mobile market still offers opportunities for organic growth - new MVNOs continue to enter the market, as reported in this quarter's update - network operators face considerable challenges as voice usage declines and customers prove reluctant to upgrade to postpaid services. Subscriber numbers growth and mobile broadband usage were weaker than expected as operators tried to encourage greater voice consumption. In the background, although, non-voice service revenues are still growing, which is encouraging for those operators starting to build 4G LTE networks. That said, lowvalue SMS services remain a large part of non-voice revenue, so operators need to contain costs wherever possible.

Key Data

- Our five-year telecoms sector forecasts have been revised, utilising Q312 data from the operators and the regulator. We have upwardly revised our mobile and broadband forecasts in light of unusually strong growth in Q312, but have left the fixed-line and 3G forecasts unchanged. We envisage 49.8mn mobile subscribers, 3.6mn fixed-line subscribers and 8.0mn broadband subscribers by 2017.
- Mobile subscriber growth rebounded in Q312 (latest available data for analysis) and may be even stronger in Q412 based on latest data from DiGi.
- ARPUs have exhibited stability, although we believe that the trend of long-term decline remains due to strong competition and price promotions.

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Key Trends & Developments

Maxis launched its 4G LTE service in selected parts of the Klang Valley region on January 1 2013. It began offering smartphones later in the month, indicating faster than expected movement in the mass market/ consumer sector. Celcom is close behind, having unveiled details of its LTE service, though a launch date has yet to be announced.

Eight of the nine LTE licensees were awarded their spectrum in December 2012, with Asiaspace conspicuously absent and newcomer Puncak Semangat adding Asiaspace's 10MHz to the 30MHz it had already been granted. This should put the newcomer in an advantageous competitive position, although the other players have cellular and WiMAX spectrum they could leverage. We still think consolidation will be inevitable in the crowded LTE market.

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