Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/02/2015 -- With a deteriorating economic environment, the Argentine grain sector will continue to play centre stage over the medium term. With foreign reserves under pressure, grain exports (particularly soybean) will remain vital, but there is increasing evidence of hoarding, which could lead to clashes with the government over policy. Nonetheless, soybean will remain the pre-eminent crop in Argentina over the long term, and we expect the poultry production to show the most promise within the livestock complex. We see potential for a mild rebound in beef production, as sector fundamentals remain challenging despite a significant decrease in grain prices. The country's dairy sector shows relative promise, due to relatively high local retail prices and investment into the sector.

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Key Trends

- Corn production growth to 2017/18: 9.5 % to 25. 0 mn tonnes. Production growth will remain slow due to farmers' preference to plant soybean versus corn due to the former crop having fewer export restrictions and easier maintenance.
- Soybean production growth to 2017/18: remain roughly flat at 5 5 . 0 mn tonnes. Growth will come from increasing export demand for soybeans along with more value-added products such Soybean crops are also generally less capital-intensive than corn crops due to lower input costs. However, lower prices over the next few years will reduce the area dedicated to soybean plantings. In terms of export markets, China will be a key destination of soybean exports as the country directs its focus towards the production of other major crops.
- Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 9.3 % to 2. 4 mn tonnes. Most production growth will come from improving trade demand, as we see comparatively subdued growth in the domestic market.
- 201 5 real GDP growth: 1 . 0 % (up from -0.2% in 2014; forecasted to average 3.1% from 2015 until 2018).
- Consumer price index (end of period): expected to increase by 20.0 % in 2015 (from a 35.0% increase...

The Argentina Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Argentina Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI?s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market?s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

- Consumption Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI?s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country?s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI's Forecasts are accompanied by a Risks-to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

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