Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/27/2015 -- Real GDP growth is highly likely to slow over the coming years owing to a number of factors: slowing growth in the working age population; a high share of government spending relative to GDP; and a reversal in the country's terms of trade; and the growing risk of deflation. These impediments will result in real GDP growth averaging 2.3% over the next decade, down from 2.9% over the past decade.

The Australian Labour Party remains in prime position ahead of the general election (to be held by January 14 2017). Malcolm Turnbull's appointment as Australia's 29th Prime Minister in October will do little to improve the Liberal-National coalition sliding popularity.

Get More Details on this Report and a Full Table of Contents at Australia Country Risk Report Q1 2016

We remain bearish on the Australian dollar despite the large fall we have already seen in the currency. While valuations are no longer a headwind to the currency, the trend remains very bearish. Weak economic growth owing to falling investment and correction in the property market amid elevated indebtedness does not bode well for the AUD.

Australia's fiscal accounts are unlikely to return to a surplus any time soon, given downside risks to revenue collection and a lack of expenditure cutbacks. Total revenue collection will remain poor as the economy continues to weaken, which will weigh heavily on tax receipts. Meanwhile, objections to spending cuts from the public, opposition and crossbench senators as well as other state governments indicate that the Australian government will struggle to keep its expenses and borrowing on a sustainable trajectory. While there is currently no danger of a fiscal crisis, our core view is that this growing burden of the government will undermine the productivity of the private sector and take its toll on economic growth over the medium term.

The Australia Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Australia. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Australia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

-Forecast the pace and stability of Australia's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
-Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
-Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
-Contextualise Australia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
-Evaluate external threats to doing business in Australia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Australia Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Australia' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Australia through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Australia Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

-Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
-BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

-Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
-Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
-Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
-Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
-Fiscal Policy

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