Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/11/2014 -- The outlook for Azerbaijan's upstream s ector is broadly bullish , with a substantial increase in the country's natural gas production offsetting a longer-term decline in oil output. We are more bearish on the downstream, and do not believe tha t forecast global refined fuels demand-supply dynamics will support the country's planned refinery upgrade and expansion projects.

Key trends we highlight for Azerbaijan's oil and gas sector:

- The country boasts substantial, prospective and underexplored area, in particular offshore in the South Caspian basin. Interest in exploration remains strong, and we see this sustained across our forecast period;
- A shortage of drilling rigs continues to delimit drilling activity in the Caspian Sea. A spate of exploration and appraisal, development and production wells are set to be spudded between 2015 and 2017; SOCAR needs to secure additional drilling rigs in coming quarters if it is to avoid the emergence of a major bottleneck in its upstream;
- Oil output decreased in the first half of 2014, according to reports by SOCAR. In part this could stem from planned maintenance works; in our view, the ACG fields may also be registering faster-than-expected depletion. We forecast some recovery in production through to 2017, but the...

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The Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Azerbaijan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Azerbaijani oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Azerbaijan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Azerbaijani oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Azerbaijani oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Azerbaijan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

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