Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "BMI India Retail Report Q3 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/28/2013 -- The Indian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact of fiscal and trade deficits that remain near historic highs on India's economic outlook.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Indian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of depressed EU demand on the Indian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Indian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
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Indian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 59% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 46%. India comes second (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it underperforms for risk. Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 84.6% between 2013 and 2017, from US$33.14bn to US$61.19bn, as India's emerging middle class continues to drive demand for new goods and services, and rural retailing presents expansion opportunities. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the removal of foreign direct investment (FDI) restrictions in multi-brand retail announced in September 2012.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecast:
- BMI remains above consensus on India's economic growth outlook, calling for headline expansion of 5.5% and 6.1% for FY2012/13 and FY2013/14 (versus market expectations of 5.3% and 5.5%, respectively). Conditions are sufficiently ripe for investment spending to lead to a growth upturn, aided at the margin by an improving export performance. That said, the government's persistent fiscal failings will prevent a more pronounced growth recovery.
- With the population expected to increase from 1.28bn in 2013 to 1.34bn by 2017, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 59.5% by the end of the review period, reaching US$2,557.
- The value of the retail segment is expected to grow from an estimated INR23.98trn (US$571.06bn) in 2013 to INR35.41trn (US$919.74bn) by 2017, a rise of 61.1% in US dollar terms.
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