Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Brazil Retail Report Q3 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/10/2013 -- The Brazilian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Brazil's economic outlook of persistently high inflation.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Brazilian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and declining Chinese import demand on the Brazilian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Brazilian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Brazilian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 21% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 27%. Brazil comes first (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/Reward Ratings.
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Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms. Sales are forecast to increase by almost 47% between 2013 and 2017, from US$40.0bn to US $58.61bn as an expanding economy lifts millions into a middle class for which computers are no longer beyond reach.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in government moves to remove certain taxes for tablet computer manufacturers to bring production into the country, with interest being shown by the likes of Foxconn, Huawei and ZTE.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- While we maintain our view for a pick-up in real GDP growth this year due in part to an uptick in fixed investment growth, we are downgrading our 2013 forecast to 3.3% from 3.5% previously. Indeed, data continue to show that Brazil's economy is recovering gradually following a substantial slowdown in recent years, while upgrades to our 2013 and 2014 interest rate forecasts mean that we believe private consumption growth will be more moderate than we previously expected.
- BMI forecasts real private consumption growth of 2.2% in 2013 and 2.6% in 2014, well below average growth of 4.8% between 2008 and 2012. While fiscal and monetary stimulus measures implemented since 2011 will support private consumption growth in the next few years, we believe that the consumer story has lost some of its lustre. Indeed, household debt levels and non-performing loans remain near record highs; factors that we believe will constrain the take-up of credit in the coming years.
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