Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Bulgaria Real Estate Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/22/2013 -- The real estate market in Bulgaria continues to struggle, as it has yet to find a strong foothold to recovery, particularly as domestic and regional headwinds continue to blow the segment off balance. Macroeconomic weakness continues to deter investors as well as curtail corporate expansion. The persistence of soft market conditions creates a tenant-favourable environment, particularly in the leasing arena, and a curtailed construction pipeline ensures that the return to growth will not be swift.
As businesses remain cautious and occupier demand remains circumspect, our core scenario is for the market to resist further contraction in 2013, with the upside being that a lack of new supply is having a favourable impact on absorption-completion dynamics in the short term. Nevertheless, data for the commercial real estate sector remains less than encouraging, with the office and industrial sectors in particular still suffering from oppressive market dynamics. With the economy still fragile, demand lacklustre and political stability in question, the news for the sector is almost exclusively gloom and doom until the region's economy is back on track.
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- With a focus on the country's principal cities of Sofia, Varna and Burgas, the report covers rental market performance in terms of rates and yields across the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction sectors.
- Following a contraction of 3.5% in the construction industry in 2012, we have downgraded our forecast for 2013 to -2.7%. After a major contraction of -17.9% in 2010, the rate of decline in the sector is slowly easing. However, the industry remains in recession, with negative growth in Q113. However, we believe that the worst could now be over.
- While our forecast lies slightly below official expectations, we remain comfortable with our forecast for real GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2013, particularly with Q113 readings showing that the economy grew by just 0.4%.
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