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Market Report, "China Agribusiness Report Q1 2014", Published

Fast Market Research recommends "China Agribusiness Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/23/2013 -- China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain a strong appetite for key commodities, and we highlight in particular the growth potential for sugar, dairy and meat products. High demand growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is going through challenging times, with GDP slowing, consumer trust in food safety dwindling, food ingredient prices rising, labour costs soaring and bank loan requirements for small-sized enterprises tightening. This is best seen in the probe led by the government into foreign dairy companies' price fixing schemes, which led to a record fine for top producers.

Key Forecasts

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- Corn production growth to 2016/17: 22.1% to 235.4mn tonnes. Output expansion will be driven by steady improvements in corn yields, the probable adoption of GM corn in the coming years and sustained public support.
- Pork consumption growth to 2017: 22.8% to 64.5mn tonnes. Pork will remain the meat of choice for Chinese consumers and consumption will be driven by revenue growth. Demand is likely to remain resilient despite the slowdown in the economy.
- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 19.2% to 14.7mn tonnes. Production will be supported by improving yields and soaring domestic demand.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$543.5mn in 2014 (up 1.9% compared with 2013, growth forecast to average 3.0% annually between 2013 and 2017).
- 2014 real GDP growth: 6.7% (down from 7.6% in 2013, forecast to average 6.4% between 2013 and 2017).
- 2014 consumer price inflation: 2.9% y-o-y ave (up from 2.8% in 2013, forecast to average 2.8% between 2013 and 2017).
- 2014 central bank policy rate: 5.75% ave (down from 6.00% in 2013, forecast to average 5.80% between 2013 and 2017).

Key Revisions To Forecasts

- Rice production forecast for 2013/14 revised down, to 141.9mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast at 143.3mn tonnes). This revision is due to unfavourable weather in various growing regions, including Hunan and southwest regions of the country.
- Cotton production forecast for 2013/14 revised up, to 32.8mn 480kg bales (compared with a previous forecast at 32.0mn bales). This revision is due to higher-than-expected production in the Xinjiang region.
- Corn production forecast for 2013/14 revised down, to 210.5mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast at 212.3mn tonnes). The crop has been hit by drought in the southern provinces and severe flooding in key producing provinces such as Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning.

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