Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/07/2013 -- China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain a strong appetite for key commodities, and we highlight in particular the growth potential for sugar, dairy and meat products. High demand growth, strong government support and potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is going through challenging times, with the GDP slowing, consumers' trust in food safety dwindling, food ingredients prices rising, labour costs soaring and bank loan requirements for small-sized enterprises tightening. This is best seen in the probe led by the government into foreign dairy companies' price fixing schemes, which led to a record fine for top producers.

Key Forecasts

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- Corn production growth to 2016/17: 22.1% to 235.4mn tonnes. Output expansion will be driven by steady improvements in corn yields, the probable adoption of genetically modified corn in the coming years and sustained public support.
- Pork consumption growth to 2017: 22.3% to 64.5mn tonnes. Pork will remain the meat of choice for Chinese consumers, and consumption will be driven by revenue growth. Demand is likely to remain resilient despite the slowdown in the economy.
- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 19.0% to 14.7mn tonnes. Production will be supported by improving yields and soaring domestic demand.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$537.8mn in 2013 (down 0.9% compared with 2012, growth forecast to average 3.3% annually between 2013 and 2017).
- 2013 real GDP growth: 7.5% (from 7.7% in 2012, forecast to average 6.4% between 2013 and 2017).
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 2.8% ave (from 2.7% in 2012, forecast to average 2.8% between 2013 and 2017).
- 2013 central bank policy rate: 5.75% ave (from 6.00% in 2012, forecast to average 5.65% between 2013 and 2017).

Key Revisions To Forecasts

- Milk production forecast for 2012/13 revised up, to 34.5mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 33.7mn tonnes). This revision is due to sustained public support, which led to a higher-thanexpected increase in dairy cows.

Key Developments

The recent offer by Chinese pork producer Shuanghui International to buy US pork producer Smithfield Foods shows the pressure local Chinese producers are feeling to find more efficient procurement options. In the medium term, the transaction would give Smithfield unique access to the Chinese market, where the company has been struggling to increase its presence in recent years. The local pork industry is relatively closed to foreign investment as the government is busy supporting internal consolidation and growth.

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