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Market Report, "Colombia Agribusiness Report Q1 2013", Published

New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

 

Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/01/2013 -- On November 16 2012, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos announced that Colombia and the EU would ratify a free trade agreement (FTA) on December 13. The agreement is expected to come into effect in 2013. According to Sergio Diaz-Granados, Colombia's minister of commerce, industry and tourism, the FTA will see Colombia's GDP increase by 0.5%. However, there is continued opposition from human rights groups and trade unions, which are pressing the EU to reject the pact, citing continued human rights abuses in Colombia. The Colombian agribusiness sector is already adapting to the challenges and opportunities presented by the FTA with the US, which entered into force in May 2012. During the first 100 days of the FTA, Colombian imports to the US increased by 18% on the same period in 2011. Dairy imports increased by 287% year-on-year, from US$97,000 to US$375,000. Exports of sugar and sugar products also posted strong growth. However, there are concerns about the capacity of domestic producers to adapt to increased imports of grains and dairy products from the US.

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Key Forecasts

?? We believe that strong investment into Colombia's hydrocarbons and infrastructure sectors, combined with resilient private consumption, will drive a robust economic expansion in 2013.We therefore forecast real GDP growth to come in at 4.3% in 2013, down slightly from 4.4% in 2012 due to a moderation in export growth. ?? Sugar consumption is forecast to grow by 1.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2013 to take demand to 1.65mn tonnes. Consumption is likely to be supported by a fall in prices; according to Acosana, the cane growers' association, the price of refined sugar fell by 17% during 2012. We forecast sugar consumption growth of 6.4% between 2012 and 2017, to 1.73mn tonnes. ?? We estimate that corn output increased by 18.6% y-o-y to reach 1.72mn tonnes in 2011/12, as the area harvested increased, boosted by the government's Pais Maiz plan. Corn production is forecast to expand by a further 5.8% y-o-y in 2012/13 to 1.82mn tonnes. Through to 2017, we forecast production to rise by 24.4% from the 2012 level to reach 2.14mn tonnes. ?? In 2013, coffee consumption is forecast to increase by 3.0% y-o-y to 1.21mn tonnes. BMI forecasts coffee consumption in Colombia to rise by 14.2% from the 2012 level to 1.34mn bags by 2017. ?? We see beef production dipping by 1.7% y-o-y in 2013 owing to high input costs and the knockon effects of poor weather in 2012. Over our forecast period, we expect production growth to resume, fuelled by the expanding economy and improved national security under President Juan Manuel Santos. Out to 2017, we forecast beef production to grow by 7.7% on the 2012 level to 975,000 tonnes.

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