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Market Report, "Colombia Country Risk Report Q2 2015", Published

Fast Market Research recommends "Colombia Country Risk Report Q2 2015" from Business Monitor International, now available


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/11/2015 -- Core Views:

- We believe that Colombia's economy will benefit from solid private consumption in the coming years. That said, with the oil sector set for slower growth as global crude prices plunge, this will prompt larger net exports deficits and weigh on gross fixed capital formation, such that we anticipate slower growth over the next decade than in the last.

- Hydrocarbon sector weakness will also weigh on Colombia's balance of payment position. Indeed, faltering oil prices and production will temper investment into Colombia and cool export growth. Meanwhile, slower oil production growth combined with increasing pressure to spend on social programmes will feed through to fiscal slippage toward the latter half of our 10-year forecast period. While the country is well positioned to withstand the storm, with low external debt and a sizeable stock of foreign reserves, the potential for deterioration in the country's macroeconomic buffers will temper investor perception of Colombia's sovereign creditworthiness.

- We expect the government and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia will reach a peace accord in the coming quarters. However, given the splintered nature of the left-wing insurgent group, such a deal will only slowly improve the security environment.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents

Major Forecast Changes:

We have tempered our optimism on Colombia's growth outlook. Our increasingly cautious view toward the country's oil sector will feed through to the economy in a number of ways:

- We are now forecasting 3.9% average real GDP growth between 2015 and 2024, further revised down from our previous 4.2% forecast. This change reflects our expectation that net exports will become a growing burden on headline growth and that gross fixed capital formation, while benefitting from robust infrastructure expansion, will struggle in the face of sluggish oil output growth.

- We have revised down our fiscal deficit projections as the continued plunge in oil prices will weigh on Colombia's budget...

The Colombia Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Colombia. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Colombia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of Colombia's economic and industry growth through end-2019.

- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.

- Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

- Contextualise Colombia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.

- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Colombia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Colombia Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Colombia' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Colombia through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Colombia Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:


- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.

- BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).

- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.

- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).

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