Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/03/2013 -- Improvements in Colombia's pharmaceutical regulation system will increase access to medicines for local patients. However, it will also put pricing pressure on drugmakers, which will undermine the growth of the patented drug market. Nevertheless, on account of the country's strong economic growth and the government's commitment to improve its regulation regime, more foreign pharmaceutical companies will invest in Colombia to capitalise on its long-term growth prospects.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: COP7,588bn (US$4.22bn) in 2012 to COP8,120bn (US$4.35bn) in 2013; +7.0% in local currency terms and +3.1% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast unchanged since Q313.
- Healthcare: COP40,230bn (US$22.39bn) in 2012 to COP43,043bn (US$23.08bn) in 2013; +7.0% in local currency terms and +3.1% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast unchanged since Q313.

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Risk/Reward Rating: In our Q413 regional Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) assessment, Colombia remains ranked eight out of 17 markets surveyed in the Americas region. Both its Rewards and Risks components remain slightly more favourable than the regional average, but we caution that the country's intellectual property (IP) regime will continue to represent barriers to multinational involvement. Nevertheless, Colombia will continue to be of interest from the longer-term point of view, not least on account of its substantial population numbers.

Key Trends And Developments

- In June 2013, in a meeting between Argentina's industry minister Debora Giorgi and Colombian health officials, it was agreed that Colombia would adopt a pharmaceutical patent examiner system implemented by Argentina. The Argentine regulation provides specific instructions regarding the application of patentability standards in the pharmaceutical field. The guidelines state that frivolous (minor) changes to the original drugs will not be considered for patentability, which in turn will prevent other players from replicating the original drug.

BMI Economic View: While real private consumption growth in Colombia has been trending lower since H211, we expect household spending to begin to pick up throughout H213 and expand at a greater pace in 2014 and 2015. We believe declining unemployment, cheap credit conditions, and improving consumer confidence will position the Colombian consumer for a multi-year expansion.

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