Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/15/2012 -- BMI's Q312 telecommunications market report includes analysis of Denmark's mobile, fixed-line, broadband and pay-TV markets. The report contains analysis of the trends and developments in technologies, operator strategies, regulatory issues, acquisitions, service deployments, investment in network infrastructure and operator performance. It draws on operator data for the country's mobile, broadband, fixed-line and pay-TV markets covering the period to the end of March 2012 and regulatory data covering the first half of 2011. Data are sourced from Denmark's leading network operators TDC, Telia Denmark and Telenor Denmark for both the mobile and wireline markets, as well as data released by Hutchison Whampoa for 3 Denmark for FY11. It is the first time the parent company has released data for 3 Denmark as a standalone operation. Finally, the report contains our five-year forecasts for the mobile, fixed-voice and broadband subscriber markets, as well as for monthly blended mobile average revenue per user (ARPU) through to 2016.
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The major issue facing the Danish mobile market continues to centre on the low margin nature of the market as a result of price competition and subscriber willingness to switch providers. The low margin environment has been compounded by a revenue squeeze due to diminishing growth opportunities as a result of the high level of penetration in the market and regulatory measures to introduce further cuts to mobile termination rates (MTRs) in March 2012. MTR cuts in 2011 had a significant impact on ARPU, and we expect further declines in ARPU in 2012 as a result of the cuts. As a result of these pressures, operators are increasingly relying on developing data revenues and other value-added services; however, they have had mixed success in the past 12-18 months.
The report also includes updated forecasts for Denmark's mobile, broadband and fixed-line subscriber markets, as well as mobile ARPU. Fixed-line subscriptions are in decline as is the case across Western Europe as a result of the dynamic of fixed-to-mobile substitution; however, the proliferation of converged services, particularly the uptake of VoIP services, has helped to mitigate this decline.
The mobile and broadband subscriber markets retain some capacity for growth despite recent large increases in subscriptions. However, with mobile broadband penetration already high, BMI forecasts a plateauing in the market over the medium term. Furthermore, in the fixed-broadband sector, we expect the leading operators such as TDC and Telia to find growth increasingly difficult to achieve in the face of competition from higher speed cable and fibre providers. Looking at the market as a whole, we estimate the respective penetration rates in the mobile and broadband markets at YE11 are 124% and 55%, among the highest in the world. We therefore expect the medium-term trend to be a mix of quarters of growth and subscriber losses.
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