Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/10/2014 -- Even with an expected return to positive economic growth in 2014, we believe that the deflationary trend has further to run. The long-term potential growth rate has been severely damaged by the economic crisis, which underpins our very modest 1.4% average real GDP growth forecast over the course of 2014-2018. Unemployment continues to edge higher, most recently reaching 28.0% in November, and has yet to show signs of coming down. The combination of excess capacity in the labour market, weak incomes and the continued bite from fiscal austerity mean that demand-side inflationary pressures will take a long time to recover. In addition, with the banking sector still effectively paralysed, the flow of credit to the corporate and household sector will remain impaired over the medium term, further preventing any demand-side inflationary pressure.
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- 2014 per capita food consumption = -0.1%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013-2018 = +1%.
- 2013 alcoholic drink value sales = -1.6%; forecast CAGR 2014-2018 = 0.1%.
- 2013 soft drink value sales = -2.1%; forecast CAGR 2014-2018 = 0.3%.
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales = 0.1%; forecast CAGR 2014-2018 = +0.8%.
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